For Canadian immigration, 2023 was a historic year with more new laws, regulations, and reforms than in many years prior.
There are, nevertheless, recurring themes, one of which is the significance of the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) in Express Entry candidates' immigration travels. Many are asking if the Express Entry draws from last year would see more of the same, as the CRS scores were higher than typical (in some cases reaching as high as 791).
In 2024, what can we anticipate for CRS Score?
In brief, it is challenging to forecast the trajectory of CRS ratings beyond 2024. This is due to a number of factors, one of which is that CRS scores are mostly influenced by the composition of the Express Entry pool at any given time of the year. More precisely, the minimum CRS scores required for a draw and possibly the draw size will be affected by variations in the distribution of CRS scores over the year.
The implementation of category-based draws in 2023 is a significant additional aspect that complicates the prediction of CRS scores in 2024. Based on Express Entry categories that represent Canada's employment market and demographic requirements, these are targeted draws. These categories are as follows:
Healthcare occupations;
STEM occupations;
Trade occupations;
Transport occupations;
Agriculture and agri-food occupations; and
French language proficiency.
Regardless of a relatively lower CRS score (which makes predicting future scores even more difficult), candidates who fit into these categories can frequently receive invitations to apply (ITAs) for permanent residence because they reflect targeted groups that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has identified as important for immigration. Even so, it's probably best for the majority of applicants to maximize their CRS score before trying to get an ITA through one of these category-based draws.
The inclusion of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates in the Express Entry drawings is the final important consideration. Through PNP streams associated with Express Entry, these candidates gain provincial nominations. This results in an additional 600 CRS points for qualifying candidates, thereby distorting the total cut-off scores.
The CRS ratings for general, PNP, and category-based draws will be tracked and graphed throughout 2023 in the next portions of this article. Take note that Express Entry draw dates are provided in the following format: "dd/mm/yy.”
All-program/general draws:
The Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), and the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) are examples of all-program draws. This was the typical Express Entry draw format before the implementation of category-based drawings earlier in 2023, where candidates were chosen only based on their CRS score ranking.
19 all-program draws produced 76,700 ITAs throughout the course of the year, with the highest CRS score cut-off at 561 points and the lowest at 481 points.
Healthcare occupations:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
28-06-23 | 476 |
06-07-23 | 463 |
26-10-23 | 431 |
Those with experience in healthcare-related professions, such as nursing, medicine, physician, and many other job titles, were included in the Express Entry pool of candidates. Three healthcare drawings were held in 2023, totaling 5,600 ITAs. For this group, the highest recorded CRS score was 476, while the lowest was 431.
STEM occupations:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
05-07-23 | 486 |
08-12-23 | 481 |
Candidates in the Express Entry pool with experience in these four related fields—civil engineers, software developers, mathematicians, web designers, and more—were classified as Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) workers. Two healthcare draws totaling 6,400 ITAs were made in 2023.
Trade occupations:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
03-08-23 | 388 |
19-12-23 | 425 |
Candidates with experience in trade occupations included machine fitters, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and more. Two transport-related Express Entry drawings in 2023 produced 2,500 ITAs for applicants.
Transport occupations:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
20-09-23 | 435 |
20-12-23 | 435 |
Candidates having experience in transportation-related fields, such as air traffic controllers, aircraft assemblers, managers, and transport truck drivers, are given preference in the transport occupation. In 2023, 1,670 individuals received ITAs from two transit lotteries.
Agriculture and Agri-food occupations:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
28-09-23 | 354 |
21-12-23 | 386 |
Candidates with professional expertise as butchers, agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors, and other roles are attracted to the agriculture and agri-food industries. In 2023, two draws focused on agriculture and agri-food produced 1,000 ITAs for candidates.
French language proficiency:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
07-07-23 | 439 |
12-07-23 | 375 |
02-08-23 | 435 |
27-09-23 | 472 |
25-10-23 | 486 |
07-12-23 | 470 |
Target candidates for French language skills are those who score at least a level 7 in each of the four language proficiency domains (reading, writing, speaking, and listening) as determined by the Niveaux de Compétence Linguistic Canadians (NCLC), the country's French-language grading system. 8,700 ITAs were awarded to applicants in six French language draws this year, with the lowest CRS score cut-off being 375 and the highest being 486.
PNP draws:
Draw Date | CRS Cut-off |
01-02-23 | 733 |
15-02-23 | 791 |
01-03-23 | 748 |
10-05-23 | 691 |
24-10-23 | 776 |
There were five PNP drawings in 2023, and 4,396 ITAs were awarded to candidates. For this group, the lowest CRS score cut-off was 691, and the highest was 791.
